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CICERO and University of Oslo CICERO Norwegian Computer Center Norwegian Computer Center
Climate sensitivity:
The equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
IPCC 2007
Q = F - T
Q: F: : Heat flux in the system Radiative forcing Climate Feedback Parameter
Detailed RF calculations:
Emissions Oslo CTM2 model RF-calculations
IPCC 2007
Q
Unit m 2 cm /sec m/yr 2 W/(m K) 2 W/(m K) 2 W/(m K) 2 K/(Wm ) Value 60 0.634 0.4 4.0 16.0 3.5 0.0 0.8
Structureofthemodel Parametre:
Name Mixed layer depth Vertical heat diffusivity Polar parameter Vertical velocity, upwelling rate Air-sea heat exchange parameter Oceanic interhemispheric heat exchange coeff. Atmospheric interhemispheric heat exchange coeff. Climate sensitivity
Observations
Surface temperature Ocean heat content
IPCC 2007
7
Statistical model:
The data: Surface temperature (3 data set, NH and SH averages). Ocean heat content
Statistical model
Bayesian approach and a MCMC-algorithm: 1. Apriori distributions for parameters and input data. 2. Update your model with observations. 3. Get posteriori uncertainties for your model parameters and input data. One of them is the climate sensitivity!
IPCC 2007
10
Whats new?
Improved representation of the radiative
forcing history
11